The situation

New Orleans Saints down 7 (17–24), 2:27 left in the fourth quarter, 1st & 10 on the own 25. You are the play-caller for this Saints at Lions final drive.

Score: Saints 17, Lions 24
Clock: 2:27, Q4
Ball: 1st & 10, own 25
Timeouts: 3 left (defense 3)
Difficulty: Hard
Typical win rate: 14%

The difficulty comes from how often a typical NFL play-caller wins from this spot in our simulation. The real head coach was Kellen Moore; the defense was coached by Dan Campbell.

What really happened on this drive

Play the drive first: the real calls are below.

Show the real play-by-play (8 plays)

The Saints scored a touchdown. Final score: Saints 30, Lions 31, a loss for Saints.

1st & 10 at the own 25, 2:27 · Quick out (best call)
6-T.Shough pass short left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at NO 33 for 8 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
2nd & 2 at the own 33, 2:23 · Deep middle (best call)
6-T.Shough sacked at NO 23 for -10 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
3rd & 12 at the own 23, 2:00 · Quick out (close)
6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 83-J.Johnson (98-D.Wonnum).
4th & 12 at the own 23, 1:55 · Quick out (costly)
6-T.Shough pass short right to 18-B.Lance to NO 38 for 15 yards (4-D.Reed).
1st & 10 at the own 38, 1:47 · Quick out (close)
6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to NO 49 for 11 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
1st & 10 at the own 49, 1:29 · Quick out (close)
6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
2nd & 10 at the own 49, 1:23 · Deep middle (best call)
6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to DET 9 for 42 yards (4-D.Reed) [97-A.Hutchinson]. NO-12-C.Olave was injured during the play. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
1st & Goal at the opp 9, 1:13 · Quick out (best call)
6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

By our grades, Kellen Moore made the best or a near-best call (green) on 4 of 8 graded snaps and gave up 2.1 win-probability points per call on average. Plays with penalties are not graded.

How this final drive is graded

Every call you make is compared with every other call available on that snap. We play out the rest of the drive hundreds of times from your exact down, distance, field position, clock and timeouts, with results drawn from real NFL plays and a typical NFL play-caller making the later calls. The difference in win probability between your call and the best call is your grade for that snap. The final drive result, touchdown or not, does not change the grades. Read the full method.

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Saints at Lions final drive: call the plays

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